₿Bitcoin Risk
Observatory
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BITCOIN RISK OBSERVATORY

Understand Bitcoin Risk in One Number

Bitcoin Risk combines key market, on-chain and macro signals into a simple 0–100 score. Lower scores have historically reflected cheaper, less overheated conditions; higher scores have reflected more expensive, more overheated conditions.

How Bitcoin Risk is calculated →

CURRENT BITCOIN RISK

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CHECKING RISKBitcoin Risk metricRequesting current Bitcoin Risk…
0Lower Risk
100Higher Risk
How Bitcoin Risk works

Bitcoin Risk combines key market, on-chain and macro signals. It fails closed when a required input is outside its governed freshness allowance.

BTC / USD

UnavailableChecking current price…

BITCOIN RISK · HISTORICAL

Bitcoin Price + Bitcoin Risk

Explore price and Bitcoin Risk together across the useful modern history.

Move across the chart for exact values.

COMPLETELY FREE

Build your own Bitcoin DCA strategy.

Instead of investing the same amount regardless of market conditions, test a strategy that invests more at lower historical risk levels and less at higher risk levels. Compare it with ordinary DCA using only the Risk reading available on each date.

  • Standard and risk-adjusted DCA
  • Custom thresholds and contribution levels
  • Optional historical selling rules
  • Capital, BTC, return and drawdown statistics

START FREE · PRO WHEN TIMING MATTERS

Research freely. Follow current risk when you need it.

The free Observatory is designed for learning, testing and long-term planning. Pro is planned for people who want timely access to the latest risk context; payments are not available yet.

FREE

Build and explore

  • Interactive DCA strategy builder
  • Historical Bitcoin risk context
  • Educational and research tools
  • Historical performance exploration
PRO · PLANNED

Stay current

  • Today’s Bitcoin Risk score
  • Latest and recent risk observations
  • Timely current-risk access

FREE · CALENDAR HISTORY

Bitcoin Monthly Returns

Historical seasonality does not guarantee future performance.

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Select months to compare historical returns.

CROSS-YEAR COMPARISON

Bitcoin Return Explorer

Select individual years or compare bull, bear, halving, post-halving, and other existing regimes with average and median paths.

ANALYSIS PERIOD

Choose the history to test

OBSERVABLE PUBLIC-DATA SHADOW SCORE

Market state, without the theatre.

A deterministic view of Bitcoin price extension, miner economics, and public sentiment. Validation-only. No investment recommendation.

—/ 100

Legacy Observable Model V1 reference

Unavailable

Legacy daily

Current BTC spot price

—CoinGecko unavailableLive · display only

Model quality

Confidence —Coverage —Percentile —

Today’s publication

Checking latest observation…

Data status

Loading governed replay

Loading the latest completed governed observation. Live spot is reported separately.

DERIVED · NON-GOVERNING

Daily Explanation

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TODAY'S RISK EXPLAINED

What is driving this reading?

MODEL COMPOSITION

Weights and current risk-point contributions

V1 weights are fixed. Contribution is the number of risk points currently added by a metric; it is not a weight.

HISTORICALLY SIMILAR OBSERVATIONS

What followed comparable readings?

Historical comparisons are descriptive. Outcomes not yet observable on the selected date are subdued.

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Technical details

Strategy Lab · Historical replay

If I had followed this strategy, what would have happened?

Additional-capital assumptions

Later contributions are external capital and are listed separately from recycled sale proceeds.

Buying rules

Selling rules

Advanced analysis, transactions and saved strategies
Saved strategy & research notes

Notes never affect calculations.

Benchmark comparison

Return analysis

Strategy robustness

Historical trade evidence only. Small samples and clustered trades reduce reliability.

Parameter sensitivity

Final portfolio value as buy and sell thresholds move. Broad strong regions are more robust than one isolated result.

Historical best-performing strategy

Optional in-period research only. Historical optimisation may not generalise and is not predictive.

Transaction timeline

Every replayed purchase and sale with its triggering rule.

Compare saved strategies

Load two saved configurations over the same selected period.

Portfolio value over time

Strategy, Buy & Hold, and Fixed Daily DCA

A matching accumulation level purchases its configured daily amount. The highest matching distribution level sells its configured percentage of BTC held.

AS-OF GOVERNED OBSERVATION

Historical Outcomes

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Find historical dates when the Observable score was within this many points of the selected score.

Rolling correlation

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Forward returns

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Historical distribution

Forward outcomes use prior governed observations whose exact target calendar date was already known on the selected date. Recent incomplete windows are unavailable; missing horizons are never extrapolated or annualised. No future data is used.

Price extension

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Miners

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Sentiment

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GOVERNED HISTORY

Price & observable risk

Wheel zooms at pointer · drag a region to zoom · Shift/Alt + drag pans · click a point to inspect

REBASED PERFORMANCE

Bitcoin Return Explorer

CYCLE COMPARISON

Two advances, aligned from cycle lows

Percentage gain from cycle low · horizontal axis is days since cycle low · wheel to zoom

MODEL BUILDER · EXPERIMENTAL

Build your own Bitcoin risk model.

Experiment with indicators and weights to see how alternative models behave today and historically. The official Bitcoin Risk Model 1.0 remains unchanged.

Experimental workspaceOfficial calculations stay frozen

Loading authoritative Current Bitcoin Risk Model 1.0…

CURRENT PRODUCTION RESULT · FROZEN PRODUCTION WEIGHTS

Bitcoin Risk Model 1.0

—/ 100 · awaiting authoritative current data
YOUR TEMPORARY WEIGHTS

Your Custom Model

—/ 100
MODEL 1.0 VS YOUR CUSTOM MODEL—custom minus official · risk points

STARTING POINT · BITCOIN RISK MODEL 1.0

Start with Bitcoin Risk Model 1.0—or begin from zero.

Bitcoin Risk Model 1.0 is the authoritative baseline. Start From Scratch clears every weight while preserving the broader experimental Metric Laboratory.

100.0%

Bitcoin Risk Model 1.0

Fixed weighted composite on a 0–100 scale. No optimized weights; missing inputs fail closed without renormalization.

MVRV Z 45% structural valuation · Fear & Greed 20% sentiment · SOPR 10% holder behaviour · Puell 10% miner cycle · Mayer 5% price extension · ATH Drawdown 5% market damage · Fed Funds 3% policy stance · U.S. Dollar 2% liquidity pressure.

Experimental normalization and metric eligibility
Experimental MVRV Z Risk Normalization

Raw MVRV Z-Score is converted to a point-in-time expanding historical percentile so it can be compared with other risk indicators in your custom model. It uses observations available by each date, begins from the Observatory's 2011 modern-history convention, and requires a 365-observation warm-up. This transformation belongs only to Build Your Model and is not part of the Official Observable Model.

Macro / Liquidity Laboratory

Six local FRED archives are available with zero default weight. Conservative publication lags are applied before observations enter model history. Their expanding normalizations never use future observations, but the underlying archives are today's historical vintage rather than reconstructed ALFRED vintages; every macro card discloses this limitation.

Realized Price remains outside the builder because a USD cost basis is not itself a comparable risk reading.

3 · SEE THE SCORE CHANGE

Current contribution

MetricNormalized riskWeight / contribution

4 · EXPLORE HISTORY & COMPARE METRICS

Your custom model with Bitcoin

Select at least one metric to begin.

Use Compare on metric cards to overlay normalized 0–100 histories without adding them to the model.

Custom model and comparisons use the normalized 0–100 axis · BTC uses an independent logarithmic USD axis · no unsupported observations are interpolated.

STRESS TEST BITCOIN RISK MODEL · Frozen-model descriptive evaluation

CURRENT / LIVE PRODUCT DATA

Current BTC Price

UnavailableWaiting for server-side CoinGecko quote

Current Bitcoin Risk

UnavailableFails closed until every component is valid

SYNCHRONIZED HISTORICAL DATA · NON-OPTIMIZING STRESS TEST

Bitcoin Risk Model 1.0

Historical synchronized contributions

Risk-band statistics

Component ablation

Normalized component correlation

Score distribution

Diagnostic only. Frozen weights and fixed bands; no parameter search or optimization.

REGISTRY-DRIVEN RESEARCH WORKSPACE

Metric Comparison.

Put two to six indicators beside Bitcoin’s price to see where they agree or differ through history. This is descriptive research—no combined score or trading signal.

METRIC SELECTION

Build comparison

Select between two and six metrics with historical observations.

SYNCHRONISED HISTORY

Selected metrics

Choose a tool, then drag across the chart · double-click to step back one zoom level · Reset view restores the common history

HISTORICAL SIGNAL ANALYSIS

Historical Trade Explorer.

What historically happened after a selected Observable Risk event within the active analysis period?

Entry condition

Exit condition

HISTORICAL STATISTICS · NOT A FORECAST

Statistical confidence

Return histogram

Box plot & percentile bands

Regime breakdown

Descriptive groups; market-regime labels do not imply causation.

NORMALISED FROM ENTRY

Historical trade paths

EVERY OCCURRENCE

Trade details

DERIVED FROM GOVERNED OBSERVATIONS

Daily Journal.

Deterministic explanations only. No manual editing, market commentary, or change to governed calculations.

Export JSON

BITCOIN OBSERVATORY · PRODUCTION METRICS

Understand the market from more than one angle.

Explore the individual indicators that describe Bitcoin’s market conditions and compare each one with Bitcoin’s price history. Start with a question; open the methodology only when you want the technical detail.

HISTORICAL DECISION-POLICY RESEARCH

Rules, trade-offs, failure modes.

Deterministic simulations driven by governed daily scores. Research only—no optimization, recommendation, or automated execution.

RESEARCH ONLY
PRODUCTION UNAUTHORIZED

POLICY COMPARISON

Ending portfolio value

FULL HISTORY

Portfolio curves

Advanced Research · Experimental diagnostics and journal

These tools support deeper research but are not required for the default investor decision workflow.

RISK EXPERIENCED

Contribution-adjusted drawdowns

LEGACY BALANCE PATH

BTC accumulated & cash

EXECUTION RECORD

Policy D purchases and staged sales

CYCLE BREAKDOWN

Ending values by fixed research window

MACRO RESEARCH

Understand the economic backdrop.

Explore liquidity, the U.S. dollar, interest rates and financial conditions through six established public indicators. These relationships provide context—not predictions.

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